Upscaling human papillomavirus vaccination in high-income countries: impact assessment based on transmission model

Table 1 Cumulative probability (%) of HPV16/18 infection by age 35 ^a , by birth cohort and vaccination upscale option

Median cumulative probability [IQR] without vaccination	Year of birth	Girls vaccinated at age 11	Coverage of 11-year-old girls 65%, boys unvaccinated^b				Coverage of 11-year–old girls
			Number of cohorts of girls targeted by catch–up in 2013 (vaccination age range)^e				90%^c	65%^d
			None	Two (17–18)	Four (17–20)	Eight (17–24)	Boys unvaccinated^c	Boys vaccinated at age 11^d
	1993	No	64.9 [54.9 – 72.8]	63.8 [53.9 – 71.8]	45.9 [36.5 – 54.3]	45.3 [36.1 – 53.7]	64.5 [54.4 – 72.5]	64.4 [54.3 – 72.4]
	1996	No	43.8 [35.9 – 51.4]	31.7 [25.1 – 38.4]	31.0 [24.4 – 37.5]	30.7 [24.2 – 37.2]	42.9 [35.1 – 50.4]	42.8 [35.1 – 50.4]
67.5 [56.9 – 75.1]	1997	Yes	28.0 [22.6 – 34.1]	26.7 [21.6 – 32.7]	26.2 [21.2 – 32.0]	26.0 [20.9 – 31.8]	27.2 [21.8 – 33.0]	27.1 [21.8 – 32.9]
	1998	Yes	26.9 [21.9 – 32.9]	25.9 [21.1 – 31.8]	25.5 [20.7 – 31.5]	25.3 [20.5 – 31.3]	25.8 [20.7 – 31.5]	25.3 [20.6 – 31.0]
	2002	Yes	24.9 [20.0 – 30.7]	24.6 [19.7 – 30.6]	24.5 [19.5 – 30.4]	24.3 [19.4 – 30.2]	8.1 [6.0 – 10.2]	17.6 [14.1 – 21.5]

^aWe reported median estimates and corresponding interquartile range (IQR), according to year of birth cohort and catch-up strategy; ^bUpscale option: 1-year catch–up; ^cUpscale option: girls coverage improvement; ^dUpscale option: addition of boys; ^eGirls aged 12–16 not included due to 5-year delay in introducing catch–up (year 2013) after vaccination programme start (year 2008).
HPV: human papillomavirus.

ISSN: 1750-9378