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Table 1 Cumulative probability (%) of HPV16/18 infection by age 35 a , by birth cohort and vaccination upscale option

From: Upscaling human papillomavirus vaccination in high-income countries: impact assessment based on transmission model

Median cumulative probability [IQR] without vaccination Year of birth Girls vaccinated at age 11 Coverage of 11-year-old girls 65%, boys unvaccinatedb Coverage of 11-year–old girls
Number of cohorts of girls targeted by catch–up in 2013 (vaccination age range)e 90%c 65%d
None Two (17–18) Four (17–20) Eight (17–24) Boys unvaccinatedc Boys vaccinated at age 11d
  1993 No 64.9 [54.9 – 72.8] 63.8 [53.9 – 71.8] 45.9 [36.5 – 54.3] 45.3 [36.1 – 53.7] 64.5 [54.4 – 72.5] 64.4 [54.3 – 72.4]
  1996 No 43.8 [35.9 – 51.4] 31.7 [25.1 – 38.4] 31.0 [24.4 – 37.5] 30.7 [24.2 – 37.2] 42.9 [35.1 – 50.4] 42.8 [35.1 – 50.4]
67.5 [56.9 – 75.1] 1997 Yes 28.0 [22.6 – 34.1] 26.7 [21.6 – 32.7] 26.2 [21.2 – 32.0] 26.0 [20.9 – 31.8] 27.2 [21.8 – 33.0] 27.1 [21.8 – 32.9]
  1998 Yes 26.9 [21.9 – 32.9] 25.9 [21.1 – 31.8] 25.5 [20.7 – 31.5] 25.3 [20.5 – 31.3] 25.8 [20.7 – 31.5] 25.3 [20.6 – 31.0]
  2002 Yes 24.9 [20.0 – 30.7] 24.6 [19.7 – 30.6] 24.5 [19.5 – 30.4] 24.3 [19.4 – 30.2] 8.1 [6.0 – 10.2] 17.6 [14.1 – 21.5]
  1. aWe reported median estimates and corresponding interquartile range (IQR), according to year of birth cohort and catch-up strategy; bUpscale option: 1-year catch–up; cUpscale option: girls coverage improvement; dUpscale option: addition of boys; eGirls aged 12–16 not included due to 5-year delay in introducing catch–up (year 2013) after vaccination programme start (year 2008).
  2. HPV: human papillomavirus.